منابع مشابه
Density forecast revisions and forecast efficiency
We explain that revisions to successive density forecasts of the same outcome, as measured by the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, need not be unpredictable, unlike those to conditional mean forecasts, even when the forecaster uses information efficiently. However one can still test the efficiency of fixed-event conditional density forecasts, similarly to conditional mean forecasts, by t...
متن کاملDrug Forecast
INTRODUCTION Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is the most common non-neoplastic disorder of aging American men.1 The prevalence of BPH increases from 8% in men between 31 and 40 years of age to 50% in men between 51 and 60 years of age to more than 80% in men older than 80 years of age.2,3 Although the exact etiologic mechanism of BPH is unknown, hormonal changes involving the accumulation of...
متن کاملDrug Forecast
INTRODUCTION Insomnia is a condition that affects nearly everyone at some point in life. Up to 40% of American adults have intermittent insomnia, and 10% to 15% have a chronic sleep problem.1 The main presentation of insomnia is difficulty with either falling asleep or maintaining sleep throughout the night. Complaints of insomnia tend to increase with age. Elderly people report trouble falling...
متن کاملDrug Forecast
INTRODUCTION Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection affects approximately one million persons in the U.S. alone.1 Along with recent advances in HIV treatment options, especially over the past decade, dramatic reductions in HIV-associated morbidity and mortality have been observed.2 As a result of an increase in life expectancy, however, the severity of side effects from these treatment op...
متن کاملForecast Combinations
We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Nature Reviews Drug Discovery
سال: 2002
ISSN: 1474-1776,1474-1784
DOI: 10.1038/nrd953